Champions League: Will Arsenal Break The Jinx?

There was no better way to send a message of intent than not only eliminating the cup holders and serial UEFA Champions League winners, Real Madrid, but doing it in style by seeing off the 15-time winners over two legs.

After the 3-0 first leg defeat at the Emirates, it was telling for a team needing at least three goals to not attempt a single shot on target until the 56th minute into the second leg, as Madrid afterwards only attempted three overall in the game, half the tally of Arsenal (6).

While the La Liga side’s attack was undoubtedly disappointing, Arsenal’s exceptional defensive structure and discipline (ignoring Saliba’s momentary lapse of concentration) throughout the game could be studied in ‘avoiding being on the wrong end of a comeback’ classes for years ahead. They both outfought and outthought the record European champions on their own patch in a pressure cauldron.

According to analysts, beating Madrid at the Bernabau, especially at that stage of the Champions League, is not for every team and that Arsenal showed composure in the midst of intimidating crowd explained how they have evolved and how prepared they are. Arteta admitted the difficulty in his first dog-out experience at the Bernabau.

“It was my first time as a coach in that dugout and today I realised after three minutes that in this stadium, anything is possible.

“I mean, they are specialists in creating such chaos, such a belief, and it’s very difficult to understand really what’s going on in the game and have certain certainty about how we control it. But I think the players showed their own maturity.”

Consequently and according to Opta Analytics, a platform that utilises data-driven storytelling to present insights from Opta data in sports, Arsenal are now favourites to win the ongoing UEFA Champions League for the first time (28.7%).

The position of Opta Analytics could be premises on the fact that it would amount to living in denial not to admit the threat posed by Los Blancos’ fearsome attacking trio of Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Jr. and Rodrigo, among other stars.

Meanwhile historically, beating Real Madrid 5-1 aggregate marks only the third time Arsenal have reached the semifinal stage of the competition. They came close to winning the Champions League in 2006, reaching the final and taking a 1-0 lead against Barcelona before ultimately losing 2-1.

Their only other semifinal appearance came in 2008/09, when they were beaten by Manchester United. Now, a two-legged semifinal against Paris Saint-Germain awaits and the question is; could this finally be Arsenal’s year?
The thirteen times English champions progressed to the last four by knocking out the competition’s most successful team, Real Madrid. Madrid have won 15 Champions League titles, winning it in six of the last 11 seasons, including in 2023/24 but the Spanish side were no match for the Gunners over those two legs.

For the records, Arsenal are the first side since 2003/04 to meet Real Madrid in a Champions League quarterfinal and knock them out. Los Blancos had won 12 quarterfinal ties in a row before Arsenal beat them this season.

It also extended an unbeaten record for Arsenal against Real Madrid. They have now met four times, with Arsenal winning three and drawing one. Arsenal are also the first team to win their first two matches against Madrid at the Bernabeu.

Earlier in the knockout rounds, Mikel Arteta’s side comfortably saw off PSV Eindhoven 9-3 on aggregate in the last 16, after they finished third in the league phase with 19 points from eight matches.

Across their 12 matches so far, the Gunners have won nine, drawn two and lost only one, scoring 30 goals and conceding only seven – the second-best defensive record left in the competition behind Internazionale, who have conceded just five, but scored only 19.

Arsenal’s only loss in the Champions League this season was a 1-0 defeat to Internazionale, who they could potentially meet in the final.

After such massive statistics, the questions from stakeholders, pundits and followers are; are Arsenal ready to end the Champions League victory wait? Nedum Onuoha, former Manchester City defender, thinks so.

While speaking to BBC, Onuoha said either of Arsenal or PSG are favourites, but noted that after overcoming the reigning champions, the Gunners have his stake to go all the way.

“As I look at the two ties left now, I think it is going to be one of the first-time winners, so either Arsenal or PSG, whoever comes through their semi-final,” he predicted.

“That is a shame for one of them because they are the two best teams in the competition. It is very hard to choose between the two but I am going to go for Arsenal.

“Beating Real Madrid, even if this is not the best version of Real Madrid is one thing, but to go to the Bernabeu with all the talk about a comeback and be so robust showed they have what it takes.

“Overall, in terms of how they are prepared to defend and suffer, and still have a threat in attack, I would argue they are the most complete team left in the competition.”

Theo Walcott, former Arsenal forward, also thinks his former club would be a team to beat, hoping they wrap up the title. He also spoke to BBC.

“I want Arsenal to win it and they are certainly capable of going all the way,” he said.

“They will be favourites now, after going to the Bernabeu and beating Real Madrid, but there is something about Inter Milan that worries me. The way they defend makes me think they have a real chance too.

“It is still so open, though, and I can’t even call either semifinal right now, let alone the final – it’s too hard to say who will win it with any certainty.”

However, other teams remaining in the competition also have their fair share from pundits.

For instance, Chris Sutton, a BBC sports analyst, sees PSG as a complete team that would go all the way.
“I think they are such a well-balanced team. They’ve got rid of all the big hitters now.

“They’ve got Ligue 1 wrapped up already so they can concentrate on the Champions League and they just ooze class and quality.”

Similarly, former Arsenal defender and pundit, Matt Upson, said PSG have had a standout performance to emerge winners.

“It’s easy to change your opinion once you get through another set of games but I’m going to stick with my gut feeling of PSG to win the competition.

“I think they’ve been standout performers all the way through. They had a real tough spell at Aston Villa and they survived. This side has a grit about it that I’ve not seen in any other PSG team.”

On his own, BBC Radio 5 Live senior football reporter, Ian Dennis, tips Inter Milan to not only go past Barcelona but win the final scheduled for Allianz Arena in May.

“I know Arsenal have been very impressive against Real Madrid but the team which appear to have gone under the radar to reach the semi-finals for me are Inter Milan.

“The Italian champions have the best defensive record in the competition, nobody has kept more clean sheets than keeper Yann Sommer. They have a solid platform and a real goal threat in Lautaro Martinez.

“It’s the second time in three seasons Inter have reached the semi-finals and I just think they could prove to be stubborn opposition for Barcelona.”

For BBC senior reporter, Simon Stone, the title is Barcelona’s to lose.

“I went for them at the start of the competition – admittedly because I wanted someone different to win it – and I am not going to change now.

“They are durable defensively, creative in midfield and have the X-factor in attack. They have not won the trophy since Lionel Messi’s time. They will do this season.”

However, all eyes will be on the match between the two sides still waiting for honours in the competition.

Between Arsenal and PSG, there is a guarantee that one of them will play in the final and could possibly win the title. While PSG’s attacking threat has been highlighted as a problem Arsenal would confront, the Gunners have some edges over the French champions.

For example, PSG have shown defensive frailties in their latest results. There is no denying that when it comes to attacking talent, PSG are one of the best sides in Europe right now.

Luis Enrique has an embarrassment of riches to choose from and the January signing of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia from Napoli has only made them stronger. Ousmane Dembele, who missed the meeting between them and Arsenal in October, is in the form of his life and already has 32 goals this season. Youngsters Bradley Barcola and Desire Doue offer express pace out wide, while Enrique can also call upon the likes of Goncalo Ramos, Lee Kang-In and Warren Zaire-Emery, too.

The coach has installed an attacking philosophy at PSG but that means that they can be vulnerable at the back, apart from the fact that Arsenal have defensive discipline that can match them. Besides, Aston Villa showed PSG’s defensive fragility during their quarterfinal loss to the French champions and they were only narrowly beaten 5-4 on aggregate.

Also, Arsenal will be suited to PSG’s style as the Gunners benefit from attacking side because they struggle against teams that sit deep in a low block. PSG will not do that and the former English champions could exploit the space afforded to them – just as they did against Real Madrid.

Arteta’s side physically dominated PSG when the two teams met in October, especially in midfield, and the French champions were made to look like a young team still developing.

Enrique’s side have grown and improved since then, while star striker Dembele is also back in the fold after missing the match in October. Arsenal, however, will take confidence from their win and it should give them a psychological edge.

The Gunners know they can beat their semifinal opponents and the fact they are at home first means they can attack the tie from the off. Arsenal also have the added bonus of a weekend off before the first leg on April 29. They had been set to face Crystal Palace that weekend but, due to the Eagles being in the FA Cup semifinal, the match is now being played on the Wednesday before then instead.

Also, Arsenal’s attack has been rejuvenated by the return of Saka but he faces a real test in Mendes, who has been one of the stars of the Champions League this season.

Mendes kept Mohamed Salah quiet across both legs of PSG’s last-16 win over Liverpool but is just as dangerous going forward, and scored in both legs against Aston Villa.

Enrique gives his full-backs licence to get forward, with Achraf Hakimi doing so from the right, and they like to suffocate teams with their high press.

PSG’s forward line has caused defences problems because it is incredibly fluid, with Barcola, Dembele and Kvaratskhelia comfortable at changing positions mid-match.

That freedom and flexibility has proven difficult for teams to combat, but Arsenal will back themselves to cope with PSG’s firepower.

Of teams still left in the Champions League, only Inter Milan have conceded fewer goals than the Gunners.
Mikel Arteta’s side have let in just seven goals in 12 Champions League games this season, keeping clean sheets in half of their matches.

A season-ending hamstring injury to Gabriel has not disrupted their organised and disciplined defence, with Jakub Kiwior stepping up and excelling at the Bernabeu.

After restricting Real Madrid to one goal and six shots on target across two legs, Arsenal will believe they can keep anyone out.