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Israel cannot afford to stop the war in Gaza

FAMILY MEMBERS of hostages held in Gaza break into a Knesset Finance Committee meeting this week.(photo credit: OREN BEN HAKOON/FLASH90)

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Israel’s national security is based on deterrence, advance warning, and decisive victory. On October 7, the warning system failed. If we stop the war now, it would mean giving up on decisive victory.

As the war in Gaza continues, impatience appears to be gaining momentum within the Israeli body politic, and voices calling for its end are increasingly heard. Those who support ending the war rely on three arguments: social/moral, security/utility, and political/democratic.

The growing concern for the fate of the hostages is at the core of the social/moral argument for stopping the war. There is an understandable, all-too-human desire for their return “now” and “at any cost.” Since Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has conditioned the hostages’ release on a full halt of military operations, some feel that “there is no choice” but to end the war. The noble feeling of solidarity pushes us to do what seems most important: to save lives, literally.

There is also the security/utility argument: is Israel being dragged into the Gaza quicksand, where the continuing war exacts an ever-increasing price without achieving the strategic advantages that justify it? It seems that Israelis are afraid of this: according to the JPPI Israeli Society Index, at the onset of the fighting, 78% were certain of victory, but now it is just 61%.
The growing skepticism of victory is tied to the assessment that continued fighting will claim the blood of even more IDF soldiers, fragment Israeli “togetherness,” delay reconstruction in the Negev and the north, punish the national economy, and diminish political support for Israel around the world.

And now the political/democratic argument: the societal firestorm caused by the judicial reform, which brought us to the brink of civil war, and the security earthquake caused by the Hamas invasion, have dramatically altered the reality in which the state functions. This change summons Israelis to the voting booth to reaffirm their support for the current leadership or to replace it.

The JPPI Index shows that trust in the prime minister and the government is very low (30% and 35%, respectively). These figures indicate that the current leadership’s ability to rally public support for significant moves has been severely diminished. However, according to traditional political wisdom, going to elections is inconceivable in wartime. If this is the case, it is better to stop the war to allow the people to have their democratic say in granting or denying confidence in the government to lead Israel in the next campaign, the one beyond the war itself.

Israeli soldiers make their way towards Israel’s border with Gaza, amid the ongoing ground invasion against Hamas, in southern Israel, November 8, 2023 (credit: RONEN ZVULUN/REUTERS)

Israel’s defense is based on deterrence, warning, and complete victory

THESE ARE three serious arguments, but alongside them stands an opposing argument of massive, and in my view, decisive, weight: ending the war before the overthrow of Hamas rule would likely expose Israel to existential security threats. Former prime minister David Ben-Gurion understood that because Israel is dwarfed by its enemies – in demographic terms (100s of millions vs less than 10 million), in terms of strategic depth (100s of kilometers vs a narrow-waisted land base), and in terms of financial resources – they would be tempted to try, time after time, to destroy us.

This is why deterrence is such a crucial element of Israel’s security concept. Deterrence – erecting an “iron wall,” as Jabotinsky put it – forestalls the next round of war for as long as possible. Over time, it may lead our enemies to despair at the prospect of our destruction, thus opening up the possibility of signing peace agreements.

Israel’s clear victory in the Yom Kippur War, which ended with the IDF positioned 100 kilometers from Cairo, eventually brought us to a peace treaty with the largest and most formidable of our neighbors.

Ben-Gurion and those who followed him realized that to maintain deterrence, Israel must strive for nothing less than overwhelming victory in its wars. This is the only way to stave off the next war and preserve the peace agreements and informal alliances with various powers in the region and beyond. An Israel that loses its deterrence power may entice many – not only Iran and its proxies – to attempt to annihilate it.

This is the correct context for understanding the strategic significance of the dilemma of whether to stop the war or to press on. In its opening salvo, Hamas handed a humiliating defeat to Israel that will not be forgotten. The advance warning system, also a critical component of our national security concept, failed catastrophically on October 7.

But this one-off move, in itself, does not tip the scales in the overall balance of deterrence, which derives from the results of war, not the causes. This was also the case in the Yom Kippur War – which began with a failure of the warning system but ended with an overwhelming victory that strengthened Israeli deterrence and effectuated a strategic reconfiguration in the region.

The Israeli government was right in declaring that the goal of the war was to dismantle Hamas. This is essential to preserving Israeli deterrence, and to this end, the State of Israel mobilized impressively: the internal disputes fell silent at once; a quarter of a million IDF reservists were called up; tens of thousands were evacuated from their homes in both the south and the north to enable the war effort to deliver a crushing defeat to the enemy.

Israel exposed itself to unrelenting political attacks and a massive loss of support around the world, and Diaspora Jews are facing a wave of antisemitism unprecedented since World War II. This is the heavy price we are paying – and as the war continues, it will increase – but it is necessary for one supreme purpose: to restore Israeli deterrence by defeating Hamas.

HAMAS IS the weakest of our enemies; it has no air force, no strategic depth, and no real state resources. It is vexingly difficult to subdue it quickly – because of its sophisticated subterranean tunnel system, because it cynically and unhesitatingly puts its citizens in harm’s way, and because it has managed to turn kidnapped Israeli citizens into human shields for its leaders. But even if the Hamas surrender is delayed, its total collapse as the entity in control of the Gaza Strip is essential to preserving Israeli deterrence. If we do not act decisively to complete the task, we will send a signal to the entire region that Israel is vulnerable, and the appetite to wipe us from the map will increase. Ending the war without a decisive victory is tantamount to a whale bleeding profusely in shark-infested waters.

Israel’s national security concept is based on three components: deterrence, advance warning, and decisive victory. On October 7, the warning system failed. If we stop the war now, it would mean giving up on an unequivocal win. It would make us complicit in undermining our own deterrence. Our enemies may mistakenly believe that there are cracks in the iron wall. Those who wish to strengthen Israel’s security for future generations, and those who wish to convince our enemies that the path of peace is the only one available to them, must grit their teeth and continue the war until a clear and decisive victory is achieved.

The writer is president of the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) and a professor (emeritus) of law at Bar-Ilan University.

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Between Danjuma, Namadi and the Gospel of Self-Defence

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By Hassan Gimba

In a tête-à-tête with journalists last week, the Governor of Jigawa State, Umar Namadi, openly disagreed with retired General Theophilus Danjuma, former Chief of Army Staff and former Minister of Defence, over his advice to us Nigerians, to defend ourselves against those who have been killing citizens like Christmas turkeys and abducting and negotiating ransom payments like buying and selling sacks of potatoes in Shendam market.

 

Namadi said, “He (Danjuma) is a very senior security person and should be respected. But if he says citizens should be allowed to defend themselves, I think you are causing anarchy.” TY Danjuma, of all people, being accused of causing anarchy?! How time changes things!

 

The weekend before, at a get-together organised in honour of his workers in Takum, Taraba State, Danjuma told staff, partners, and companies working with him that citizens should not fold their arms and allow bandits and terrorists to overrun their communities.

 

“We cannot continue to sit and watch while bandits, terrorists, and criminal gangs massacre our people unchecked… It is now very clear that the government alone cannot protect us. We must stand up and defend ourselves, our families, and our lands before these criminals overrun the entire country,” he affirmed.

 

TY Danjuma, described as “a soldier’s soldier” by former President Muhammadu Buhari, has been an unapologetic advocate for self-defence.

 

In October 2022, he made the same call in Wukari, Taraba State, at the official presentation of the Staff of Office to the Aku Uka of Wukari, Manu Ali, where he lamented that Nigerians had taken his earlier call in 2017 for them to defend their land against terrorists for granted. And so, he appealed to the Aku Uka “to unite us to be able to defend ourselves against the enemies of the country effectively.”

 

Exactly seven years ago, at the maiden convocation ceremony of Taraba State University in Jalingo, the state capital, Danjuma said, “The unnecessary killings, which is a target for ethnic cleansing of the people of Taraba and Nigeria at large, must stop,” calling on the people to “rise and defend themselves against the killers.”

 

“You must rise to protect yourselves from these people; if you depend on the Armed Forces to protect you, you will all die,” he said.

 

The presidency, the Army he once headed, and the Nigerian Police rebuked him over those statements. The Nigerian Army set up an investigative committee, to which he responded, “In 2017, when I called on the people to defend themselves, the Army set up a kangaroo commission of enquiry to investigate, and they said I was lying because there was no evidence.”

But what has changed between then and now?

According to a report by The Punch newspaper, 23 local government areas in Sokoto, Zamfara, and Kebbi States are under the control of bandits. Farmers and residents have abandoned their farms and communities, while the unlucky ones have been slaughtered, their women taken away.
 

Bandits appoint community leaders in many communities, with residents paying them homage and taxes.
 

In Niger State, five local governments are within the bandits’ grip. It is equally dire in Katsina, where communities have now been forced to negotiate with the bandits for relief from their attacks. In the Faskari area of Katsina State, 32 communities have been abandoned due to relentless bandit attacks, according to a Leadership newspaper survey.
 

Bandits can storm a wedding venue and demand that the bride be handed over to them — a demand people quickly obey. Sometimes, they call a father to bring them his daughter(s) or a husband to surrender his wife or wives. Refusing to comply is perilous, as no one can protect you from the consequences that may arise.
 

Who can, when even military barracks are not exempt from their attacks? From the plains of Sokoto to the dunes of Borno, up to the hills of Taraba, terrorists in various forms hold sway. Venture ten kilometres outside Maiduguri, and you may never be seen again. Even today, roads connecting the capital of Borno to other areas remain unused due to the risk of encountering them.
 

When one carefully examines all the besieged communities, a common thread emerges: most inhabitants were docile, sheepishly allowing the marauders to treat them as they pleased. Instead of defending their lands, property, integrity, and families by facing the brigands head-on, forcing them back or dying in the process with wounds on the front, they turn tail and run away — many of them dying from wounds on their backs.
 

I often cite two communities in the North-East that stood toe-to-toe with Boko Haram and emerged victorious.
 

When Boko Haram attacked Azare town in Bauchi State, instead of cowering, residents bravely fought back. Those with vehicles rammed into them, while others, despite being shot at, pursued them until the last of them was dispatched to God for final judgment.

 

The same occurred in Biu, Borno State. The entire youth population came out to confront the Boko Haramites when they invaded the town of Yamtar Ola until the remaining insurgents realised it was safer to flee the hilly town. To the insurgents, avoiding these two lands of the brave is the beginning of wisdom.

 

But who is TY Danjuma that Governor Namadi is warning not to bring anarchy to Nigeria? When Namadi was born on 7 April 1963, Danjuma was a second lieutenant and a platoon commander in a United Nations peacekeeping force in Sante, Katanga Province, in Congo. In 1966, when the governor was three years old, Danjuma laid down not only his career but also his life by being at the forefront of the counter-coup, dubbed the “July Rematch,” which aimed to avenge the North, a region that Namadi now presumably wishes to see developed.

Between 1967 and 1970, he fought to preserve Nigeria’s unity. You may accuse Nigerians who fought to retain a united Nigeria of many things, but not of lacking patriotism — and indeed not of causing anarchy.

 

Former President Buhari, who fought in the Nigerian Civil War under Danjuma, has said that at a time when Danjuma could have been Head of State following the assassination of General Murtala Mohammed in a botched coup in 1976, he sacrificed for the country.

 

Unlike many generals who have profited from the country’s insecurity, amassing billions for themselves, Danjuma, through legitimate business ventures, has used his profits to benefit communities, including tertiary institutions.

 

Surely, one expects an apology from anyone who accuses such a figure as General TY Danjuma, as Governor Namadi did.

 

In an era when generals contribute millions to pay ransom for the release of one of their own, what will become of us, ordinary mortals, if we do not come together and organise to defend ourselves?

 

Hassan Gimba, anipr, is the CEO/Publisher of Neptune Prime.

 

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Opinion

As Pope Francies go home

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By Abiodun KOMOLAFE

The world has paid its respects to Pope Francis. The ‘exequies’, or papal funeral rites, were a fitting tribute to a life of service. The Pope continued the humility of his earthly journey by insisting he not be buried in the pomp and grandiosity of Saint Peter’s Basilica where many of his predecessors lie. Instead, he had expressed a desire to be buried in Santa Maria Maggiore. This choice reflects his devotion to Mary and the Church. It emphasizes his commitment to simplicity and service.

The late Pope’s wishes extended beyond his burial location. He also opted against embalming, embracing mortality; chose a simple casket, symbolizing solidarity with the poor; and requested a modest grave, embodying servant-leadership. The Vicar of Christ requested that his tombstone bear only a simple inscription: “Franciscus”, signifying his humility and desire to be remembered not for his titles or achievements, but for his name and his identity as a servant of the Lord.

To be honest, the passing of the Holy Father comes at a significant moment for the world. We are in a turbulent era! There are wars as well as rumours of wars, including the far-fetched possibility of World War III! Besides, the climate change issue is becoming more pronounced! With the exception of President Donald Trump, those denying the punitive effect of the consequences of the depletion of the ozone layer are reluctantly in the view of damning evidence revising their position on climate change.

Pope Francis’ instructive choice of name reflects his commitment to addressing inequality, paying homage to Saint Francis of Assisi, a champion of the poor. This nod to Saint Francis echoes the philosophical underpinnings of Christian Democracy, which emphasizes social justice and human dignity. Influential thinkers like R.H. Tawney, a British Christian socialist, have shaped this movement.

Tawney’s work, particularly ‘Religion and the Rise of Capitalism’, speaks to the role of faith in promoting social change and advocating for greater access to education, healthcare, housing and social welfare. This Christian democratic ethos has inspired social change promoters across Europe, Scandinavia and beyond, reflecting a broader commitment to reducing inequality and promoting human well-being.

Pope Francis’ background in Latin America’s Liberation Theology Movement reflects his commitment to social justice and challenging inequality. This movement, which emerged as a response to the region’s socio-economic disparities, courageously confronted military dictatorships and advocated for the poor. The Liberation Theology Movement’s emphasis on the preferential option for the poor resonated with many Roman Catholic priests, who often faced persecution and violence for their involvement. Indeed, dozens of priests were killed or disappeared due to their activism.

The Liberation Theology Movement revitalized global interest in Christian values. It inspired conversions and renewed devotion. One good example is former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, whose conversion to Catholicism reflects the movement’s influence in re-emphasizing Christianity’s founding ethos. This revival, marked by leaders like Pope Saint John Paul II and Pope Francis, who risked their lives to challenge inequality and dictatorship, represents a significant moment in modern Christianity. Indeed, the liberation Theology Movement played the kind of roles that in different ways our own National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) and the earlier anti-colonial nationalist movements across Africa played in another era. They must be given kudos for this!

As Pope, Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio continued his steadfast commitment to combating inequality and oppression. In a very determined way, he pursued interfaith dialogue and cooperation, seeking to end religious hostilities and promote understanding among diverse faiths. This mission, rooted in Christianity’s fundamental principles of human dignity and solidarity, must not only be sustained but also intensified. Christianity must go back to its fundamental roots based on the search for the edification of humanity through bridging the gap of opportunities in the society and looking for peace where there is discord.

In my article ‘Lessons from the Dead’, published in a national daily on Monday, January 26, 1998, I emphasized the importance of leaders understanding and empathizing with the people they serve. I wrote, “A good leader must ascertain people’s sentiments and identify himself with them in life and in struggle.” I also noted that “The dead are not to blame … for dying. Rather, their lives and times should teach those who are yet to die some lessons.” This perspective is exemplified in the lives of Pope Francis and Mother Teresa of Calcutta. Guided by strong faith and spiritual conviction, they demonstrated that true fulfillment lies in prioritizing the needs of others, thereby motivating countless individuals to adopt similar values of service, empathy, and kindness.

Beyond the sorrow of passing, the life and times of the Bishop of Rome offer valuable lessons for everyone. The Servant of the Servants of God trusted in God’s guidance, and avoided hasty decisions. In a gesture both practical and religious, the departed Primate of Italy and Sovereign of the Vatican City State was a sweet hope for the overlooked and the voiceless. His dedication to serving the poor and marginalized showcased the importance of compassion and empathy. Even where and when ‘Never again’ failed, His Holiness showed balance and showed fairness! He also contributed to the revival of Christianity and he should be praised for it.

Pope Francis’ efforts to revive the philosophical foundations of Catholicism offer a compelling counterpoint to the prosperity gospel movement, which has contributed to Christianity’s decline in some quarters. This phenomenon is reminiscent of the historical context that gave rise to the Labour Party in the UK. While the party emerged from the trade union movement and socialist groups, the Methodist roots of some key figures, such as Keir Hardie, played a role in shaping the party’s values. It was their work that led to Free Education and the best Health Services the world had ever seen.

Christian socialism has also played a significant role in shaping the welfare states of Nordic and Scandinavian countries. The Christian socialist movement’s emphasis on social justice and equality has influenced policy and practice in these nations. For instance, the Beveridge Report, which advocated for comprehensive social welfare, inspired the manifestos of various African political parties, including Nigeria’s Action Group, Ghana’s Convention People’s Party and India’s Congress Party. These parties’ commitment to social justice and equality serves as a powerful tool for contemporary policymakers.

Gaza! Ukraine! Even the escalating trade wars! Since the Pope has no battalions, he can only appeal to the consciences of leaders. But then, had the world heeded the Supreme Pontiff’s admonitions and sought peace instead of disharmony, the world would have been a better place to live in. Had the political establishment, with their military and commercial backers, not been dismissing the counsel of leaders like the ebullient, vivacious and zestful priest, we wouldn’t have had to keep measuring victory over terrorism by the number of body bags and economic losses. And who’s gaining from that?

Sudan! Congo DRC! Even banditry, kidnapping terrorism! Africa faces profound challenges, with inequality and lack of opportunities fueling social and economic crises. For God’s sake, why won’t we have 152 people killed in a space of 10 days when we are not creating jobs? Why must we continue to witness such devastation when the solution is clear: bridging the gap between the haves and have-nots? Without addressing these disparities, violence and instability will persist!

To quote the prayer of Saint Francis of Assisi, “Where there is discord, let us seek harmony; where there is error, let us seek truth.” This beautiful prayer, which inspired the beautifully-departed Pope, offers a timeless message of reconciliation and understanding that transcends denominational boundaries.

May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, rest the souls of Pope Francis and all the faithful departed!

*KOMOLAFE wrote in from Ijebu-Jesa, Osun State, Nigeria (ijebujesa@yahoo.co.uk; 08033614419 – SMS only)

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