If Israel is ‘winning the war’ on Hamas, why are rockets falling? – comment

It is too early for the Israeli people to declare victory in the Israel-Hamas war – or even to believe that winning is on the horizon.

ASSESSING THE damage after a rocket fired from Lebanon hit Kiryat Shmona, January 8, 2024.(photo credit: AYAL MARGOLIN/FLASH90)
Gun battles in Gaza, more than 50 rockets launched at Israel in one day, a terrorist attack in central Israel, and still Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and IDF top brass are boasting of winning the war.
It is too early for the Israeli people to declare victory in the Israel-Hamas war – or even to believe that winning is on the horizon.

Yet our leaders’ strongly worded and assuring statements have acted as a balm on Israeli public consciousness, despite the high IDF casualty count and the failure to secure the release of the remaining 136 hostages in captivity in Gaza.

As proof of public sentiment that success is on the horizon, earlier this week the Jewish People’s Policy Institute released a survey which revealed that showed nearly eight out of 10 Israelis (78%) believe that Israel will win the war.

When asked what victory looks like, 38% said that Gaza is no longer under Hamas control. Another 25% said that border area residents feel safe returning home. Fourteen percent said if the hostages return home.

SO, IS it almost over? Let’s examine the issues.

Hamas resilience:

While aerial photos of the Gaza Strip and reports by foreign media show that Israel has damaged or destroyed at least 70% of the buildings and infrastructure in Gaza, Hamas and its top leaders remain alive and well enough underground.

Moreover, despite Israel’s flattening of the Gaza skyline, the resilience of the remaining fighters and citizens appears high. They still have enough military power to launch rockets at Israel, and Hamas continues its unyielding ground fight, evident in the daily toll on our soldiers.

According to IDF reports, Hamas has experienced limited losses in terms of key military figures, with only three top military leaders out of 14, two brigade commanders, and 19 battalion commanders eliminated. The army is taking out around 10 to 20 terrorists a day, resulting in approximately 9,000 Palestinian fighters being neutralized since October 7, the IDF said earlier this week.

This figure contrasts with the overall death toll of around 24,000 in the enclave, reported by the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry.
Earlier this week, the spokesperson for Hamas’s Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, Abu Obeida, claimed that “the enemy’s announcements of imaginary achievements regarding rockets and tunnels are a subject of ridicule for us, and the day will come when we prove their falsehood.”

Finally, despite escalating famine and disease threats, the Gazan citizenry has refrained from rebelling against their terror government, a trend likely to persist if the polls prove accurate.

Hostage dilemma:

On Monday, Kibbutz Be’eri announced the death in captivity of two hostages connected to its community, adding to the list of around 20 Israeli hostages who have been reported dead with their bodies still in captivity.

With released Israelis’ testimonies and videos shared by Hamas – though possibly part of psychological warfare – it is probable that the lives of any remaining hostages are in jeopardy.

“The fate of many prisoners has become unknown during the past weeks,” Abu Obeida said in his Sunday statement. “Most likely, many prisoners were killed, and the enemy bears responsibility for their fate.”

Thus far, Israel has rescued only one hostage. Other individuals were released from Gaza during the hostage-prisoner exchange. Since then, Hamas has upped its ante to levels that Israel finds unacceptable.

Israeli media reported that MK Gadi Eisenkot told the war cabinet that Israel had to change tactics if it was to secure the release of the remaining hostages and that “time is running out.” Despite this, Gallant remains steadfast in advocating the continuation of military pressure.

“If the war ends now, the fate of the hostages will be sealed for many years – in Hamas captivity,” Gallant said Tuesday.

Border, sea escalations:

While Israel pounds Gaza, threats on the northern border by Hezbollah and in the Red Sea by the Houthis are escalating.
This week, a Hezbollah missile killed a mother and her son in Moshav Kfar Yuval. While Israel continues to exchange fire with Lebanon, more than 100,000 residents of the area remain displaced from their homes.

At sea, the Houthis have said ships will continue to be targeted until the attacks on Gaza stop – even if the United States and Britain get involved.

“The Yemeni armed forces will continue to prevent Israeli navigation or those associated with the Israeli enemy in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea until the aggression is stopped and the siege on the steadfast Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip is lifted,” the military spokesperson for the Houthis, Yahya Saree, said Tuesday.

West Bank turmoil: The situation in the West Bank is also unstable, with the IDF operating at unprecedented levels since the start of the war, and public sentiment appearing increasingly supportive of Hamas among the local population.

“In Judea and Samaria, we operate around the clock in the communities and along the axes,” the IDF said in a statement over the weekend. “During the war, we conducted an unprecedented number of offensive activities and apprehended terrorists, some of whom were on their way to commit terror attacks.”

Since October 7, the IDF has apprehended close to 2,700 wanted Palestinians in the West Bank, with over 1,300 of them having affiliations with Hamas.

In an interview with Al Jazeera, a member of the executive committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization equated the situation in the West Bank with that of Gaza, saying that “as Israel committed massacres in the Gaza Strip throughout 100 days of war, it continues its attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank.

“Through repeated raids and attacks, Israel is hoping people will leave voluntarily,” Wasel Abu Yousef said.

Terror in Ra’anana:

This week marked the first internal terror attack outside Jerusalem since the onset of the war. Two West Bank Palestinians, in Israel illegally, initiated the assault, which involved stabbing Israeli civilians and executing a car-ramming attack in the central city of Ra’anana, according to the Israel Police and several witnesses.

The attack left one older woman dead and more than a dozen wounded, some severely. It also rocked the affluent city, to where many American immigrants moved after making aliyah.

Global backlash:

World opinion broadly condemns Israel’s efforts to defend itself against the Hamas terrorist regime, with widespread protests on streets and college campuses. Furthermore, Israel is being forced to defend itself in the International Court of Justice against South Africa’s allegations that it is committing genocide against the Palestinians.

Flattening buildings, destroying tunnels, and killing Arab terrorists are short-term markers in a field with an unknown and possibly unachievable end goal. The people deserve to be given an accurate timeline by their leaders and a comprehensive understanding of what might be at stake if Israel intends to fulfill the mission it declared on October 7.

The writer is deputy CEO – strategy and innovation for The Jerusalem Post and a senior correspondent. She also co-hosts the Inside Israeli Innovation podcast.