CBN projects less revenue from crude oil exports in 2024, declares N18.804 billion as total trade balance in Q3 of 2023

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Olyemi Cardoso has declared that high rate of forex and inflation will decline in 2024.

This is even as he declared a less projected revenue from oil exports in the fiscal year, stating that a total trade from Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market NFEM, stood at N18.804 billion in the third quarter (Q3) of 2023.

Cardoso led top officials of the apex bank to the National Assembly on Thursday for an interactive session with the joint Senate and House of Representatives Committee on Banking, Insurance and Financial Institutions.

The governor said, the outlook for domestic economy in Nigeria for 2024 is very positive as both the Inflation and Exchange rates, would withstand fluctuating pressures on them and get stabilized.

“The outlook for the domestic economy remains positive and expected to maintain the positive trajectory for 2024.

“Inflation pressures may persist in the short term, but is expected to decline in 2024. Exchange rate pressures are also expected to reduce significantly with the smooth functioning of foreign exchange market”, he said.

He informed the committee members that the unification of the exchange rate windows in June 2023, has ushered in a new approach to the management of the exchange rate, aimed at reducing arbitrage, rent seeking behaviour and speculation in the market.

“The policy aims at creating a market where the demand and supply of foreign exchange determines the exchange rate.

“The premium has narrowed and our focus on increasing the autonomous FX supply, would lead to more stability and further narrowing of the premium.

“Total Trade in the third quarter of 2023, stood at N18.804.68 billion. Exports were valued at N10.346.60 billion while total imports stood at N8.457.68 billion. This represents positive trade balance, which would lead to increase of the external reserves”.

He however stated that due to domestic prevailing factors , less revenues, would be earned from oil exports in 2024.

Cardoso said: “We expect less revenue from oil exports due to the production limit of 1.78mbpd in 2024. OPEC approved quota for Nigeria is 1.8mbpd , which is higher than the 2024 budget assumption.

“However, the country’s production has been below these thresholds . The budget benchmark for 2023 was 1.69mbpd, but the highest level of production during the year, was about 1.35mbpd in Q3 of 2023.

“The reasons for the underperformance of the oil production target, include, crude oil theft and pipeline vandalization, production shut – ins and divestments by major oil companies”.

Earlier before the CBN Governor’s presentation, the Chairman of the joint committee, Senator Tokunbo Abiru, said the interactive session was organized for statutory briefing by CBN in line with extant laws.

The co-Chairman of the committee, Hon Bahir Bello El-Rufai, in his remarks, commended the CBN governor and the entire management team on measures being put in place to stabilise the economy generally.